Brief on Valuation for Hitting (MLB)

Context:

B/R Walk-Off interview MLB players during the all-star break about which hitting stat they think is best. The responses were divided:

1. OPS - 6

2. xwOBA - 1

3. Chase Rate

4. wrc+

Nelson Hypothesis:

I would like an analysis of players that have actually turned it around with tangible stats (like OPS or BA) after their wRC+ and xwOBA were showing they were effective but the OPS wasn’t showing it. I wonder if that exists. Perhaps for a future follow-up blog.

I’m an OPS guy, because that’s real. The other stuff is not tangible on a scorecard. Soft hits and “hitting them where they ain’t”, as my dad would say, is more valuable than hitting the ball hard but still getting out. There is an art to getting on base.

That being said, OPS doesn’t necessarily care about soft hits. Look at Tony Gwynn and Reggie Jackson.

Tony Gwynn - .847 OPS, .338 BA, 135 HRs, 434 K's

Reggie Jackson - .846 OPS, .262 BA, 563 HRs, 2,597 K's

Side note - even with today's massive strikeout numbers, Reggie Jackson is still the all-time leader in getting struck out. However, Reggie Jackson is obviously 100% a HOFer despite striking out that much.

All that is to say that is why OPS is a better judge than BA. But both OPS and BA, in my opinion, are better than the advanced metric stuff like wRC+ and xwOBA. That stuff is good for grading speculative potential, but it doesn’t mean those guys are getting it done.

I hope to further explore this in later blogs to tie back to this...